After taking some time to weigh their options, the Washington Nationals have decided to add Matt Latos to their 25-man roster. If the Nationals had not done so, Latos could have opted out of his contract. A member of the Washington minor league system since late June, Latos had posted a sparkling 1.93 ERA in six starts. His time with the Chicago White Sox to begin the year, however, is a completely different story. In-depth statistics such as fielding independent pitching (FIP) show that Latos was very lucky to have a 4.62 ERA and it should have been much worse. Latos was clearly over-performing through his first handful of starts when he had a 0.73 ERA, but nobody expected that ERA to balloon to over 7 from that point forward. So simply put, in Latos, the Nationals are getting a guy who can be excellent or horrible. And the tough question becomes "How do they know what to expect?"
First let's start with the good. Latos is a guy who has won 14 games on three separate occasions, most recently in 2013 as a member of the Cincinnati Reds. Another positive is his career 3.57 ERA, which would be welcome on any Big League rotation. Not to mention, he also sports an above-average 1.20 WHIP over his eight big league seasons. But the two biggest positives of all: He's just 28 years old and he will be pitching under the tutelage of one of the games' premier pitching coaches in Mike Maddux. This lends optimism that whatever issues that have plagued him recently can be corrected.
Speaking of those issues, there are plenty of red flags in Latos' performance in recent years. In the 2.5 seasons since his 14-win 2013 campaign, Latos has gone 15-17 with a 4.39 ERA. Still not awful, but a far cry from his previous body of work. The biggest red flag of all came last year during his 6 game stint with the Dodgers where he was saddled with a 6.66 ERA, an atrocious WHIP of over 1.50 and he averaged 11.5 hits allowed per nine innings. A possible explanation for his struggles could be found in his pitch count and innings data. Latos has only gone 5.1 innings per start this year, as compared to the 6 innings he has averaged over his career. He is using more pitches per inning (16.7) this year than his career average (15.8), and it is his worst number since his rookie season. Neither of those statistics display glaring differences, however they are enough out of the norm for Latos to be labeled a potential suspect. Or perhaps, instead of being a cause of his pitching woes, they could just be another number affected by his struggles.
(Chicago Tribune)Data suggests, however that there is more reason to be positive than concerned. He has maintained a low BB/9 rating of around 2 throughout his career, gives up less than 1 home run per nine innings, and his strikeouts have dropped by 3 this year from his career average, which the Nationals hope means he is due for a correction to finish out the year.
(Washington Post)Now, as for the Nationals, this move is made more out of necessity at the moment than anything else. Stephen Strasburg (15-4, 3.59) and Joe Ross (7-4, 3.49) are both on the DL (although Strasburg has begun to throw again, giving the Nats hope he will be ready sooner rather than later). Reynaldo Lopez (5.33 ERA) and top pitching prospect Lucas Giolito (5.63) have been very spotty in limited starts this year. That leaves Max Scherzer (14-7, 2.92), Tanner Roark (13-7, 2.99) and Gio Gonzalez (9-9, 4.25) as the only proven pitchers in the rotation. Until Strasburg and Ross come back, the Nats have no other choice but to pitch Latos. When the other two return, the Nationals will have a decision to make. Will someone be bumped out of the rotation? Will they go to the bullpen or back to AAA?Roark has had plenty of experience as a reliever but it would make no sense at all to take him out of the rotation with all the success he has had. Will the Nats just go with a 6-man rotation? They could do that to take some strain off their front-line starters, especially with an 8 game lead in the division. For Dusty Baker, this seems like a good problem to have. That is, if everything plays out according to plan. But as the calendar flips to the final month of the regular season, we are reminded that September baseball, just like Matt Latos, has one thing that is certain. That one thing is the fact that nothing is certain.
No comments:
Post a Comment