SEASON PREVIEW: Baltimore Orioles

2016 Record: 89-73
AL Wild Card Team
Manager; Buck Showalter

Key Additions: OF Seth Smith, C Welington Castillo

Key Departures: 1B/DH Pedro Alvarez*, OF Michael Bourn, P Yovani Gallardo,  C Matt Wieters
                                                                                       
*at the publishing time of this post, the Orioles are considering bringing Alvarez back on a Minor League deal.

                                   Credit: Baltimore Sun


OVERVIEW: Let's just come right out and say it. If the Orioles want to have any chance at winning the AL East, they're going to have to slug their way to the top. Does that sound like last years team (minus the "finishing at the top" part)? It should, because this team is very similar and will rely on the same style of play in 2017. Matt Wieters departs for the nearby Washington Nationals, taking his 17 home runs with hi, but there is still more than enough pop in this lineup. Mark Trumbo (47 home runs), Chris Davis (38), Manny Machado (37), Adam Jones (29) and Jonathan Schoop (25) all return and give this team an abundance of power who can change the game with one swing. Plus, there is at least a decent level of mutual interest of bringing back Pedro Alverez (22 home runs) on a Minor League deal, and he could certainly fit into this lineup. In addition, the Orioles bring in catcher Welington Castillo and outfielder Seth Smith, Both of them are solid offensive players, capable of hitting 15-20 home runs each. This seems similar to the Earl Weaver Oriole offenses of old, when Earl liked to play for the "3-run homer". In fact, nobody on this 2017 Orioles team stole more than 4 bases on the big league level last year. With no small ball in sight, the O's better hope for a lot of home runs, and they have just the offense to do it.

There is one big difference between those old Earl Weaver teams and this Buck Showalter club. Earl Weaver had pitchers like Hall of Famer Jim Palmer, Scott McGregor, and Mike Flanagan. Buck Showalter has...Ubaldo Jiminez and Wade Miley. Yeah, not exactly a stellar staff. Jiminez has been nothing short of a disaster, having only one good season since coming to the American League in 2011, and Wade Miley registered a dismal 6.17 ERA after joining the Orioles mid-season. Mike Wright and Tyler Wilson were both extreme liabilities in the back of the rotation as well. There are a few possible bright spots however. First, is the oft-injured, seemingly constant prospect Dylan Bundy. Shuffling between the bullpen and the rotation, Bundy compiled a 4.02 ERA, while striking out almost as many hitters (104) as innings pitched (109). If he can stay healthy and continue to develop, there's no reason he can't be a quality starter, if not a possible ace, for years to come. But that's a big "if" and it simply cannot be guaranteed that he can contribute for a full season. Next is Kevin Gausman, who had a solid season in the rotation, making 30 starts and going 9-12, despite a solid 3.61 ERA and 174 strikeouts. Gausman was plagued by allowing 28 home runs in those 30 starts.  He has a live fastball but still tends to groove it and that occasional lack of movement gets him in trouble Nonetheless, his first full season in the rotation leads the team to believe he can be a solid and reliable second or third starter. And then that brings us to Chris Tillman. Tillman was easily the best starter on the staff in 2016, posting a 16-6 record before shoulder surgery ended his season. The original hope was for Tillman to perhaps miss the first few weeks of April, but after suffering a rehab setback, the Orioles are bracing themselves for him to be absent perhaps into the summer. Unless Wright or Wilson steps up or Jiminez remembers how to be a top-notch pitcher, the Orioles are in trouble. The bullpen is stellar, led by All-Star Zach Britton and set-up men Brad Brach and Darren O'Day, but what good is a solid back end of the bullpen if the starters can't hand them a lead? Once again we're looking at you, offense.

PREDICTION: The O's will rake offensively this year, putting up power numbers that will rival some of the best seasons we've ever seen, but the starting rotation continues to be a question mark in the absence of Tillman. Even when he returns, it's not enough to get this team into the playoffs in 2017. 84-78, 3rd place in the AL East.

UP NEXT: Boston Red Sox




-Orioles logo courtesy of Camden Chat