(ESPN)Bartolo Colon has said that he would like to pitch next year. Given the 13-7 record for the New York Mets, there's no reason to think he wouldn't get some interest in the offseason. The first big question is where would he play? In New York, he would be little more than an insurance policy/long reliever, much in the way we saw him down the stretch and into the postseason last year. However there are some other teams (possibly the Marlins, Angels, Pirates) that would be interested in his services as well. But there is one huge wild-card in all this. Colon is 43 years old. Once players reach that age, it's almost impossible to be able to project what they will do. Take A-Rod for example. In 2015 he hits 30 home runs, and in 2016 his bat goes so cold that the Yankees were forced to cut him. On the other hand, David Ortiz is having yet another stellar season at age 40. Even Julio Franco was swinging a bat well into his mid-50s (ok, I know he's an extreme case but you can't tell me that's not mind blowing that a guy could be so consistent for that long).
So first, let's take a look at some of Bartolo's contemporaries and see how their production held up after the age of 40. For this example. we will look at Randy Johnson, Jamie Moyer, and Roger Clemens.
NOTE: I am not including Blue Jays starter R.A. Dickey or former Red Sox pitcher Tim Wakefield because knuckleball pitchers have a bit of a different "shelf life" than non-knuckleballers. Also, guys like Arthur Rhodes and LaTroy Hawkisn didn't make the comparison because they spent most of their later careers in the bullpen.
RANDY JOHNSON: Career 303 Wins, 3.29 ERA, 22 seasons. The Big Unit was one of the most well known, well-respected, and dominant pitchers of his day (and most likely, all time. Johnson won 5 Cy Young awards, including four in a row with the Diamondbacks. Here is a look at his 40+ year old.
AGE 40- 16-14, 2.60 ERA, 290 K's (led league), 245 innings. (2004 w/Diamondbacks)
AGE 41- 17-8, 3.79, 211 K's, 225 innings (2005 w/Yankees)
AGE 42- 17-11, 5.00 ERA, 172 K's, 205 innings (2006 w/Yankees)
AGE 43- 4-3, 3.81, 72 K's, 56 innings, INJURED (2007 w/Diamondbacks
AGE 44- 11-10, 3.91, 173 K's, 184 innings (2008 w/Diamondbacks)
AGE 45- 8-6, 4.88 ERA, 86 K's, 96 innings (2009 w/Giants)
So, with the exception of 2006 and 2009, where he was clearly bailed out by high run-supports, Johnson continued to be a valuable and top quality starter after he turned 40. Note though, the numbers do dip in terms of ERA and the K/Innings ratio drop more at the end, but still, he remained a solid #3 starter at the very least as he finished his career in San Francisco. The injury shortened what could have been a very strong 2008 campaign, and that is another thing to keep in mind. While production past 40 is key, injuries also play a large factor in determining a player's value as they age.
ROGER CLEMENS- The Rocket would have been a HOFer for sure had the steroid allegations not clouded the perception of him. A 7 time Cy Young award winner, 2 World Series titles, and an MVP award as a member of the Red Sox are the only awards that currently bear witness to his greatness and dominance.
AGE 40- 17-9, 3.91 ERA, 190 K's, 211 innings (2003 w/Yankees)
AGE 41- 18-4, 2.98 ERA, 218 K's, 214 innings (2004 w/Astros)
AGE 42- 13-9, 1.87 ERA, 185 K's, 211 innings (2005 w/Astros)
AGE 43- 7-6, 2.30 ERA, 102 K's, 113 innings (2006 w/Astros)
AGE 44- 6-6, 4.18 ERA, 68 K's, 99 innings (2007 w/Yankees)
With Clemens there is another interesting possible variable that comes into play.The year before he turned 40, he posted an ERA of 4.35, and followed it up at 3.91. Both of those seasons were in the American League. His only other season in the AL from there on was in 2007 with a 4.18 ERA. But during his 3 NL seasons, he posts ERAs of 2.98, 1.87, and 2.30. Did the change of scenery help? Maybe. Did going to the NL help? Maybe. But don't forget, Johnson returned to the NL too at the end of his career and didn't fare near as well as Clemens. Maybe it was because when Clemens went to the NL in 2004, it was his first time in that league. Who knows?
JAMIE MOYER- The pitcher's version of Julio Franco. Moyer's career seemed as if it could go on forever. He certainly provided quality work well into his mid 40s. A 20 game winner as late as age 40, he was a solid contributor for the Phillies in the years to come. Even if the Rockies were the most appealing (or only) option for Moyer's final season, it was a mistake for all parties involved. The thin air and Moyer's control issues led to lots of home runs and an early season release from Colorado. All-in-all. Moyer had a very productive career and will be remembered mostly for his longevity and consistent production.
(Strikeouts won't be included in season totals, because unlike Clemens and Johnson, Moyer wasn't a strikeout pitcher)
AGE 40- 21-7, 3.27 ERA, 230 innings (2003 w/Mariners)
AGE 41- 7-13, 5.21 ERA, 207 innings (2004 w/Mariners)
AGE 42- 13-7, 4.28 ERA, 200 innings (2005 w/Mariners
AGE 43- 11-14, 4.30 ERA, 211 innings (2006 w/Mariners and Phillies)
AGE 44- 14-12, 5.01 ERA, 199 innings (2007 w/Phillies)
AGE 45- 16-7, 3.71 ERA, 196 innings (2008 w/Phillies)
AGE 46- 12-10, 4.94 ERA, 162 innings (2009 w/Phillies)
AGE 47- 9-9, 4.84 ERA, 111 innings (2010 w/Phillies)
AGE 48- DID NOT PLAY
AGE 49- 2-5, 5.70 ERA, 53 innings (2012 w/Rockies)
The big takeaway from Moyer is that after he turned 40, with the exception of his age 40 season (and maybe his age 45 season), he was no more than a #3 or #4 guy. But just as in Bartolo Colon's situation, nobody was asking him to be a star by this age. And a star is never something that Moyer ever claimed to be. He was a solid pitcher who would win 13-15 games and have an ERA around 4.25.
BARTOLO COLON- So what do all these numbers mean for the Big Sexy? Well it's hard to say because he isn't the power pitchers that Johnson and Clemens were, but he also hasn't put up worse numbers than Moyer's up to this point. The truth of what we can expect from Colon is most likely somewhere in between the two.
AGE 40- 18-6, 2.65 ERA, 190 innings (2013 w/Athletics)
AGE 41- 15-13 4.09 ERA, 202 innings (2014 w/Mets)
AGE 42- 14-13 4.16, 194 innings (2015 w/Mets)
AGE 43- 13-6, 3.22 ERA, 164 innings (2016 w/METS...SEASON NOT YET FINISHED)
Two things stand out. First, the 2016 season for Colon is probably a slight bit of an aberration. His numbers next year will probably revert back to about 14 wins and an ERA around 4.10. But that leads to the second thing that stands out. And that is where will he play? The Mets would like to trot out Syndergaard, deGrom, Matz, Harvey, and Wheeler as their everyday rotation, which relegates Colon to more of an emergency option/long reliever. But there are still some teams that could see Colon as a starting pitcher option in 2017.
My gut feeling is that Colon will sign with the Marlins, Pirates, or Diamondbacks.
I thought about American League teams that could want him, and there are a few legitimate options.
But then he wouldn't get to bat, and none of us want to live in a world without this.
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