Tuesday, September 13, 2016

STAT SHEET: A look at the AL Rookie of the Year race

With less than one month remaining in the 2016 MLB season, we have reached the point where races, both for playoffs and awards, are coming down to the wire. For much of the season, the American League Rookie of the Year battle has been between the Tigers' Michael Fulmer, the Indians' Tyler Naquin, the ChiSox' Tim Anderson, and the Rangers' Nomar Mazara, and the Twins' Max Kepler (although he seems like a bit of a longshot). A look at this list brings up two main questions. First, is there any chance for Yankees' young slugger Gary Sanchez? The second question is the more obvious one: who will win the award? A lot can happen in the final month of the season, but let's take a look at all these players in contention, and see who has the strongest case for AL ROY.

MAX KEPLER, TWINS. The German-born Kepler has certainly impressed with his display of power this year, swatting 16 home runs through 99 games. He has also driven in nearly 60 runs (which would project to 97 RBI for a full 162-game season. Perhaps in other years, voters could look past his .238 batting average and his .971 fielding percentage and still vote him ROY strictly on power (let's face it, home runs are a sexy stat that everyone is guilty of putting too much stock into) but the truth of the matter is this year's rookie class is pretty deep in the AL.

NOMAR MAZARA, RANGERS. If you are one of those aforementioned people that put too much stock into home runs (before you get upset or offended, let me come out and say I'm totally one of those people), make sure you see THIS. Even if you're not one of those people, watch that home run video anyways. There are 491 reasons in that video why scouts rave about his power. Not only does he have exceptional power, but he's hitting a respectable .270. Now, like a standard power hitter these days, he DOES have 100 strikeouts, but that's not uncommon anymore. Quite frankly, he's already put up the numbers to have won this award. But unfortunately for Mazara, the AL ROY class is deep this year. He'll be an exciting player to watch throughout his career, but he won't be bringing home the hardware as a rooke.

TIM ANDERSON, WHITE SOX. I'll be the first to tell you; I watched Anderson play minor league ball with Hi-Class A Winston-Salem and I like this kid. Slick glove, speed and a little bit of pop. Anderson was a top prospect in the minors and I expect he can carve out a nice long career in the middle infield. A .286 hitter, 7 home runs, and 10 steals in 80 games this year, Anderson has done a little bit of everything and has already established himself as a key part of this White Sox lineup. While his glovework was slick in the minors, he has made 12 errors this year in Chicago but that number will only get better as he gets older. Every rookie class has their "jack of all trades" candidate, and Anderson assumes that role in 2016.

TYLER NAQUIN, INDIANS. In spring training, Naquin was expected to take over the starting CF position but struggled out of the gate and was sent back to AAA. But since his return to Cleveland, he has shown why he belongs in a big league uniform. On the season he's batting an even .300, with 14 homers and 42 RBI in 102 games. He is a big reason the Cleveland Indians offense has been so productive this year, pairing with guys like Lindor, Kipnis, Santana, and Mike Napoli (side note: I am absolutely astounded how well he is hitting this year). It seems like Naquin has earned his spot and should patrol centerfield at Progressive Field for a long time. He would be my pick for AL ROY if it wasn't for...

MICHAEL FULMER, TIGERS. There's a really simple explanation for why Fulmer gets my vote for AL ROY. Sure a 10-6 record as a rookie isn't bad. 117 strikeouts in 143 innings isn't either. But here's the big reason that I chose Fulmer: He leads the American League in ERA. Sure, it may sound a little simplistic but anytime a rookie leads a league in a "Triple Crown" category, that's a big deal. I watched Fulmer pitch against the Yankees the last time those two teams met and I was absolutely astounded. He doesn't look like a rookie. His demeanor, confidence, and poise on the mound would never lead one to guess he was new to the big leagues. Fulmer and a resurgent Justin Verlander are a huge reason the Tigers are in the hunt for a Wild Card position and they will be all the more valuable if they make the postseason. They'll give the Tigers that dominant 1-2 punch they've lacked since Scherzer left and Verlander had a few down years.



Does GARY SANCHEZ, YANKEES realistically have any chance at winning? That's a very interesting season. Since getting called up at the beginning of August, Sanchez has been, without a doubt, the Yankees best hitter. A .333 hitter, 13 home runs, and 24 RBI in his first 35 games have helped his club climb from 8 games out of the playoffs to just 2 behind the second Wild Card spot. But it seems difficult to give the award to a guy who hasn't been at the big league level for more than a month (2 months by the end of the season). For comparison, howerver, Hall-of-Famer Willie McCovey won Rookie of the Year in 1959 for the Giants by hitting .354 with 13 home runs and 38 RBI in just 52 games. Sanchez would finish the season having played a similar number of games. So, I suppose it isn't inconceivable to see Sanchez winning the award, but I think it is hard to pick him over a guy who has had the season that Fulmer has had. If we get to the end of the season and Sanchez is still hitting .300 and has 20-25 home runs, get back to me because he might have played himself into the top spot.

                             (Penner, USA Today Sports)


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